beginning of this year (hopefully in passing a Happy New Year 2011 to all readers of this blog;)) is rich in returns, revelations and speculation about the social network ... as was in fact over the past year.
While his attendance recently surpassed Google in the U.S. (read here ) and suggestive of a hoax imminent closure has to shake the web (see for example the thousands of -!!!- pages of comments on Weekly World News), one prophesies the (real) death of Facebook in the next 5 years.
Jeffrey Cole, Director of the Centre for the Digital Future at the University of South Carolina and the World Internet Project he predicted a similar fate than Myspace . The social network leader only a few years ago, has just confirmed the rumor, which announced it would part from nearly 50% of its workforce. NewsCorp, which had purchased it in 2005, would consider several options, including an outright sale of the old (and éphémaire) flagship of the social web.
Interestingly, Jeffrey Cole himself had announced the collapse 4 years ago ... That
now (actually in mid-November of last year) he predicted at a conference in Sydney a decline of Facebook, which, if it will be slower than that of Myspace, condemn in the next 5 years the social network.
According to him, another social network "giant" did not take place but several, according to a tendency to fragmentation. Difficult however to know more, the same despatch evasive about this action being taken across (and finding a video of the intervention remain empty.)
Among the accusations made against Facebook The controversial management of private data is obviously the one that takes precedence. In this regard, Diaspora figure challenger is virtuous. "You are the owner of your images, and you should not be forced to abandon it just to share "says he, nonchalantly. remains to be seen whether the project will take off as well as it is about him.
But in regard to a "future" fragmentation of social networks, should we expect an increase in community-based approaches? In fact, it seems possible that there are, like the forums - or Facebook groups (!) - social networks, "facebook fans of hiking in the mountains", "facebook scrapbooking enthusiasts," etc..'s point of view of professional practice "online PR", it gets harder. The useful and functional convergence and complementarity of the device-type "site + blog + a + a Facebook page, Twitter account associated to touch everyone" therefore prove more complex to implement. A scattering of "communities of influence" ... extra complexities and their identification with their actions, although it would probably be interesting segmentation.
On a more strictly sociological, such a trend would cause a failover of an approach like "a global community where the focus affinities Community are involved" to a scheme of "peer communities without broken links real" ...
Remains to be seen whether the prophecy come true. We have until 5 years ahead of us to see how things evolve ... and we expect that the profession will soon, if necessary, to adapt.
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